Monday, June 30, 2025
Historically, the United States has been the top international destination for Canadian travelers. However, recent trends suggest a shift in cross-border air travel, marked by a noticeable decline in passenger numbers and flight bookings. While overall travel between the two countries is down, certain routes between the US and Canada continue to show robust performance, defying the broader decline.
Fort Lauderdale to Quebec: A Notable Exception
One such standout route is the connection between Fort Lauderdale (FLL) and Quebec (YQB). This route achieved an impressive load factor of 95.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. While this metric is useful for understanding how full flights are, it’s important to recognize that it doesn’t account for ticket prices or the overall revenue generated from the route, making it a partial measure of its success.
This route is operated by Air Canada, which offers two flights a week using its Airbus A319 aircraft. The route was served 47 times in the first quarter of 2025, providing seating for 136 passengers per flight—12 in business class and 124 in economy. It is particularly popular among leisure travelers during the colder months, as many Quebec residents seek warmer destinations in Florida to escape the winter chill.
Additionally, Air Transat operates the same Fort Lauderdale-Quebec route, with a slightly lower load factor of 89.8%. Air Transat uses its Airbus A321LR aircraft, which has a larger capacity, seating up to 199 passengers. This route also attracts vacationers looking to enjoy the warmth of Florida during the winter months, demonstrating the consistent demand for leisure-focused travel between Quebec and Florida.
Other Strong US-Canada Routes
While the Fort Lauderdale-Quebec route leads in load factors, several other US-Canada routes are also performing well, reflecting a sustained demand for certain destinations.
Among these, WestJet’s Orlando (MCO) to Calgary (YYC) route is a strong performer, posting a load factor of 93.6% in Q1 2025. WestJet operates this route using its Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, offering a reliable and efficient service for both leisure and business travelers heading to Florida.
United Airlines’ Houston (IAH) to Calgary (YYC) route is another high performer, recording a load factor of 93.4%. The airline operates this route with Airbus A319 aircraft, known for their comfort and reliability, catering to both business and leisure passengers.
Additionally, the Chicago (ORD) to Vancouver (YVR) route from United Airlines saw a load factor of 93% during the same period. This route, offering easy access between two major cities, continues to attract both leisure travelers and business professionals.
Rounding out the top five is WestJet’s Fort Lauderdale (FLL) to Vancouver (YVR) route, which achieved a solid load factor of 92.8%. This route, like others from Florida, is popular during the winter months, with many travelers seeking a combination of sun and comfort.
Airline Load Factor Rankings for US-Canada Routes (Q1 2025)
| Airline | Route | Load Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Air Canada | Fort Lauderdale-Quebec | 95.4% |
| WestJet | Orlando-Calgary | 93.6% |
| United Airlines | Houston-Calgary | 93.4% |
| United Airlines | Chicago-Vancouver | 93% |
| WestJet | Fort Lauderdale-Vancouver | 92.8% |
Air Canada Suspends Toronto-Jacksonville Route for Winter 2025
While some routes are performing well, not all US-Canada flights are seeing continued demand. Air Canada has announced the suspension of its Toronto (YYZ) to Jacksonville (JAX) service for the winter season, from November 2025 to March 2026. This decision comes after lower-than-expected demand for this route, highlighting the challenges airlines face in maintaining profitability on certain cross-border routes.
This service, which is traditionally operated with a Bombardier CRJ 900 aircraft, has been the only nonstop flight connecting Toronto and Jacksonville. The CRJ 900 offers a three-class seating configuration with a total of 76 seats. However, with passenger numbers not meeting expectations, Air Canada decided to temporarily suspend the route, signaling a shift in its operational focus for the winter season. The service will resume in the summer of 2026.
Conclusion
While the overall trend shows a decline in US-Canada air travel, specific routes are still thriving. The Fort Lauderdale-Quebec route, with its impressive load factors, exemplifies the continued demand for leisure travel between Canada and the US, especially during the winter months. Other high-performing routes, such as Orlando-Calgary and Houston-Calgary, also show that some markets are still thriving despite broader trends.
As the air travel industry adapts to evolving market conditions, airlines will need to remain flexible, adjusting their offerings to align with passenger demand. Routes like Fort Lauderdale-Quebec underscore the importance of catering to the leisure market, while the suspension of routes like Toronto-Jacksonville highlights the need for constant reassessment of route profitability.
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