Published on
August 25, 2025
As of August 25, 2025, Tropical Storm Fernand continues to make its presence felt across the Atlantic Ocean. It is located north of the area near 31.8N 59.8W, currently moving north-northeast at 11 knots. The system has sustained winds of 40 knots, with gusts reaching up to 50 knots. Fernand is expected to continue on its current path, moving further north, and will weaken over time. Several regions in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico are closely monitoring and taking precautions in response to various tropical disturbances, including Tropical Storm Fernand and a tropical wave near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) have issued warnings for rough seas, strong winds, and thunderstorms, particularly along coastal areas. For Bermuda, residents are being advised to prepare for strong winds and maritime operations are on high alert due to the storm’s proximity. Similarly, the Windward and Leeward Islands are facing marine warnings with an emphasis on rough seas and gusty winds, along with thunderstorms affecting coastal regions. In the Gulf of Mexico, the stationary front continues to produce flooding conditions, prompting emergency response teams to stay on alert.
Precautions
| Region/Area | System | Precautions Taken | Source Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bermuda | Tropical Storm Fernand | Coastal residents and maritime operations warned about rough seas and strong winds. | National Hurricane Center (NHC), WPLG Local 10 |
| Windward and Leeward Islands | Tropical Wave (East of Windward Islands) | Marine warnings for rough seas and strong winds. Coastal alerts for thunderstorms. | National Hurricane Center (NHC), WPLG Local 10 |
| Gulf of Mexico | Stationary Front | Flood advisories and emergency response teams activated for rain and thunderstorms. | U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), WPLG Local 10 |
| Caribbean Sea | Pressure Gradient in Gulf of Venezuela | Marine warnings for rough seas and strong winds. Alerts for fishing vessels and beachgoers. | National Hurricane Center (NHC), WPLG Local 10 |
| U.S. East Coast | Tropical Storm Fernand | Coastal regions on alert for rip currents. Swells and gusty winds from Fernand. | National Hurricane Center (NHC), WPLG Local 10 |
| Atlantic Seaboard | Tropical Storm Fernand | Coastal regions under watch for rip currents. Emergency teams on standby for potential coastal damage. | National Hurricane Center (NHC), WPLG Local 10 |
In terms of sea conditions, the storm has caused rough seas, with significant waves of 10 to 14 feet reported south of the storm’s center. Additionally, there is residual northerly swell from Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin, this Fernand which continues to affect parts of the central Atlantic. These conditions have led to widespread waves of 8 to 11 feet, with longer wave periods of 15 to 17 seconds between 30W and 65W. Other areas further east are experiencing swell periods of up to 20 seconds, which are significant for maritime navigation and coastal conditions.
Fernand’s forecast indicates that it will continue to move away from the affected regions, and by August 27, it is expected to become post-tropical as it drifts towards the northeast. A high-pressure ridge will build across the region as Fernand dissipates by the afternoon of August 27. Despite its weakening, Fernand’s residual impacts are likely to persist for the next few days, particularly along the Southeastern U.S. coastline, where fresh winds and swell will remain a concern.
Other Active Weather Systems in the Atlantic
Tropical Waves and Disturbances
In addition to Fernand, several other systems are active or developing in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave has formed along 29W west of the Cabo Verde Islands, stretching from 22N southward. Although no significant convection has been noted, the wave is moving westward at a moderate pace, potentially affecting nearby regions in the coming days.
Further to the west, near 58W, another tropical wave has been analyzed, extending from 21N southward through the Windward Islands, bringing scattered moderate convection across the region. A third tropical wave is moving through the western Caribbean, with moderate to strong convection occurring from 13N to 18N. This system has resulted in fresh winds and rising seas across the Gulf of Honduras and the Gulf of Venezuela.
The Windward Islands, in particular, are seeing the effects of these systems, with increasing winds and building seas. The development of a weak low pressure system is likely to occur as these systems move through the Caribbean Sea, although the formation chances remain low for the next 48 hours.
Gulf of America: Stationary Front and Low-Pressure Systems
In the Gulf of America, a stationary front is causing scattered thunderstorms, particularly to the north of 22N. This front will persist through midweek, generating numerous showers and thunderstorms in the area, especially north of 25N. A weak low-pressure system is forecast to develop along the front by midweek, further complicating weather patterns in the Gulf. The Bay of Campeche remains an area of interest, as moderate winds and seas are expected to prevail, with slight to moderate seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet.
As for the south-central Gulf, moderate to fresh winds are expected to continue, particularly in the afternoons when a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula. These conditions will lead to slightly rougher seas in the south-central regions as the system continues to evolve.
Caribbean Sea: Wind and Sea Conditions
The Caribbean Sea is currently experiencing strong winds, particularly in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore northern Colombia. These winds are being driven by a strengthening pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over northern Colombia and high-pressure systems to the north. As a result, locally rough seas of up to 8 feet are being reported offshore of Colombia, with strong NE winds sweeping across the region. The Caribbean is also dealing with rough seas near 8 to 10 feet as a tropical wave moves through the eastern basin.
The eastern Caribbean is currently experiencing a tropical wave that will lead to an increase in winds and sea heights, affecting areas through Wednesday. The system will also impact the Atlantic passages, where rough seas are expected. Fresh to strong NE winds will also persist throughout the region, particularly in the Gulf of Honduras.
The Windward and Leeward Islands: Tropical Wave Impact
A tropical wave located just east of the Windward Islands is currently producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with near gale-force winds. The system is expected to move westward, bringing these conditions to the Leeward and Windward Islands tonight and into Monday. However, reconnaissance data suggests that this system does not have a closed low-level circulation, and its chances for further development are low. Nonetheless, the Caribbean will experience heightened wind and sea conditions due to this tropical wave over the coming days.
Forecast for the Next Few Days
Looking ahead, the systems currently affecting the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are expected to continue their movements, but with diminishing intensity in some cases. Tropical Storm Fernand is forecast to weaken over time, while other systems such as the tropical wave near the Windward Islands and the tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean are expected to encounter less favorable conditions for further development.
The Gulf of Mexico will remain under the influence of a stationary front, with moderate convection likely to continue across the northern regions. A weak low-pressure system may form along the front by Tuesday or Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore northern Colombia will persist, causing strong winds and rough seas in these areas.
Sources:
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
WPLG Local 10
U.S. National Weather Service (NWS)
