Saturday, May 17, 2025
Canadian travel to the United States dropped sharply in April, with return trips falling over thirty five percent compared to the same month last year, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The continued slump is being driven by a combination of escalating political tensions—including U.S. tariffs and controversial rhetoric—alongside a weaker Canadian dollar and the rollout of new U.S. entry rules that require extended-stay visitors to register with immigration authorities, creating additional barriers for Canadian travelers crossing the border.
Canadian Cross-Border Travel Takes a Sharp Hit
In April, just 1.2 million Canadian residents returned home from the United States by vehicle, representing a sharp 35.2 percent decline compared to April 2024. The dip wasn’t limited to road travel; Canadian air passengers returning from the U.S. also fell steeply, dropping 19.9 percent to 582,737 for the month.
These figures mark the fourth consecutive month in which Canadian return travel from the U.S. has fallen on a year-over-year basis, signaling a deeper and more persistent trend in travel hesitation or avoidance.
U.S. Visitor Numbers to Canada Also Decline
The downward trend is mutual. Travel by U.S. residents to Canada has also weakened noticeably. Vehicle trips into Canada by Americans fell 10.7 percent in April, totaling 820,700 entries. Air travel arrivals from the U.S. to Canada dropped 5.5 percent year-over-year, with only 289,300 Americans flying north.
April marks the third straight month of year-over-year decline in U.S. travel to Canada, reflecting a broader stagnation in North American travel activity.
Political Rhetoric and Economic Strain Undermining Travel
One of the leading contributors to the travel slowdown is the increasingly fraught political climate. Ongoing U.S. tariffs and inflammatory comments from former President Donald Trump—including suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state—have contributed to souring public sentiment and increased reluctance among Canadians to travel south.
Simultaneously, the Canadian dollar’s continued weakness against its U.S. counterpart has made American travel considerably more expensive for Canadians, discouraging shopping trips, vacations, and longer seasonal stays.
Regulatory Shifts Add New Travel Barriers
Further compounding the situation is the rollout of new U.S. immigration rules implemented in April 2025 by the Department of Homeland Security and Citizenship and Immigration Services. Under these rules, foreign nationals—including Canadians—who plan to remain in the U.S. for over 30 days are required to register with U.S. authorities unless their registration is automatically completed at entry.
While Canadians arriving by air are usually registered through automated systems, those crossing via land borders often must take the extra step to register themselves. This added administrative requirement may be deterring travelers, particularly older snowbirds or extended-stay tourists who might otherwise spend months in the U.S. each year.
U.S. Initiatives to Win Back Canadian Tourists
Recognizing the sharp drop in visitors from the north, U.S. lawmakers and state governments are ramping up efforts to reverse the trend. California Governor Gavin Newsom has launched a tourism campaign specifically targeting Canadian travelers, hoping to rekindle interest in U.S. vacations.
Additionally, bipartisan lawmakers in Congress are pushing forward a bill that would extend the allowable visa-free stay for Canadian citizens from 180 days to 240 days. This proposed change seeks to accommodate Canadians who spend extended time in states like Florida, Arizona, or California during the winter season.
Economic and Industry Impact
The sustained travel decline is beginning to have noticeable consequences for industries on both sides of the border. The tourism, hospitality, retail, and transportation sectors rely heavily on the millions of trips exchanged between Canada and the U.S. each year. With April’s figures extending a four-month streak of falling travel, businesses in key border cities and travel hubs may face prolonged downturns in customer traffic and revenue.
Moreover, the intertwined nature of the two economies means that reduced mobility affects more than just tourism—it can impact bilateral commerce, family visits, educational travel, and seasonal labor.
Cross-Border Travel Continues Downward Spiral from January to April 2025
- January 2025:
- Canadian return travel from the U.S. saw a modest decline of 2.3% compared to January 2024, totaling approximately 2.7 million trips.
- U.S. travel to Canada briefly rose by 20.8%, marking the only month of increase in the period.
- February 2025:
- Vehicle-based travel by Canadians to the U.S. dropped sharply by 23% year-over-year.
- Overnight land visits from the U.S. to Canada declined by 26%, while air arrivals fell by 14%.
- March 2025:
- Canadian cross-border trips to the U.S. decreased approximately 17% compared to the same month in 2024.
- Travel from the U.S. to Canada mirrored the trend with a 17% drop in overall visitor numbers.
- April 2025:
- Canadian vehicle return trips from the U.S. plummeted by 35.2%, with air travel down by 19.9%.
- American land entries into Canada fell by 10.7%, and air arrivals dropped 5.5% compared to April 2024.
Canadian travel to the U.S. slumped over 35 percent in April due to rising tariffs, political tensions, and new U.S. entry rules requiring extended-stay registration. This marks the fourth straight month of declining cross-border trips.
Outlook Remains Uncertain
As geopolitical friction persists and regulatory burdens mount, the outlook for a quick rebound in cross-border travel remains uncertain. While legislative fixes such as extended visa allowances may offer some relief, underlying issues—economic constraints, political rhetoric, and increased compliance requirements—are likely to continue influencing traveler decisions.
April’s data confirms that the cross-border travel slump is not a short-term fluctuation but part of a broader, ongoing pattern. Unless both nations move decisively to restore mutual travel confidence and address traveler concerns, the historic flow of movement between Canada and the U.S. may remain restrained for months to come.
